Now reform the laggard mining sector. It isn’t India Mining. At a conspicuously low 0.6 per cent growth, the mining sector’s performance stands out in the rush of encouraging statistics from CSO’s quick estimates for 2005-2006. Even agriculture (2.3 per cent), not a recent star performer, has taken advantage of the monsoon cycle to clock a modestly good growth rate. The question why the mining sector must grow is as important as why it is flatlining. Coal accounts for the bulk of electricity production.

Electricity demand grows with rising income. If per capita income increases by a conservative 5 per cent every year — the figure was 6.1 per cent in 04-05 and 5.9 per cent in this fiscal’s quick estimates — electricity demand is supposed to register 8 per cent annual growth. Coal production isn’t anywhere near meeting that demand. Since alternative energy sources, from wind to nuclear, are not pragmatic near term replacements, power shortage can short circuit growth. Premonitions of that are already with us — many thermal power suppliers have complained about coal availability. CSO’s data will hopefully prod the policy establishment to think beyond the “it’s politics” excuse. ...

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